Guided public estimate · The Decision Brief

Estimate what faster, better-governed decisions could be worth.

Choose a country. GDPVision begins with sourced public records and clearly marked reference assumptions. It then suggests an order for the ten working areas. Every figure can be checked, and the total estimated benefit cannot exceed 1.2 per cent of GDP. During a government engagement, authorised national records replace assumptions and create an approved starting point. This tool helps frame a decision; it does not predict the future.

Explore each stage to see how the estimate is governed.

Public estimate · evidence status

This open brief combines sourced national records with clearly marked reference assumptions. During a government engagement, authorised data replaces assumptions. A named official takes responsibility for each source, and the evidence is reviewed and approved before recommendations are used for a formal decision.

0 supported by records6 reference assumptions2 adjusted by you

Step 01

Choose the country to assess.

Choose a country and GDPVision begins with the figures it already holds. Each shows its source, confidence grade, and the typical value for the region. Nothing you change here leaves your browser until you request the brief.

US$2.50 bn

In hundreds of millions of US dollars. Adjust freely — the model scales with it.

26 % of GDP

General government spending. This sets the scale of the opportunities the model can assess.

Step 02

Review the evidence and replace assumptions.

Six conditions shape the size of the opportunity. Where national evidence provides an answer, the figure appears with its source and confidence grade. Where it does not, a typical regional value is used and clearly marked as an assumption. You can correct any figure.

24 decisions

Anything that commits capital, changes an incentive, or reallocates a programme.

6 months

Include time spent bringing conflicting figures into agreement, but not time spent considering the choice.

30 % of public spend

Money that is spent and reported but never measured against an agreed result.

47 % of GDP

Tourism, extractives, financial services — whichever carries the economy.

60 % of transactions

Applications, licences, certificates and payments that cannot be completed online end to end.

30 % of GDP

Sectors the government has named as priorities without a plan, a Compact or a scorecard.

Step 03

Set the first-year priorities.

The ten Chambers are shown in the order the evidence suggests for the first year, with the estimated value each could release. Adjust the depth of any Chamber and the result updates.

01
The National LedgerInstitutionalised
One agreed set of numbers comes first; every other chamber reads from it.
02
The Cabinet RoomIn service
Follow-through is unmeasured; a named owner and a standing record is the cheapest recovery of value.
03
The Sector StudioPiloted
No priority sectors are chosen yet; choosing few and planning them is the next decision.
04
The Mandate CompactIn service
Pledges decomposed to ministry-owned deliverables and scored quarterly turn intent into completed work.
05
Portfolio WorkspacesIn service
Standards coverage unknown; ministers who can see their own contribution reallocate at the margin.
06
The Digital Government StudioPiloted
No government record or platform PRD yet; the public site is the citizen's first contact with the state.
07
The FDI Transition StudioIn service
Concentration unknown; readiness answered before investors ask.
08
The Scenario EngineIn service
Rehearsal before commitment prices the downside while it is still avoidable.
09
The Narrative ChamberPiloted
A programme that is explained survives its first bad week.
10
The Persona LabNot adopted
A rehearsal instrument for how policy lands; last because it protects rather than creates value.

Institutionalised

Faster decisions across the Cabinet cycle. A shared structure for twelve sectors, with a decade of history, a confidence grade on every data series, major risks linked to their sources, and detailed sector records.

In service

Reallocation yield on programme spend with no measured outcome. Every minister's contribution to GDP as a standing figure, their dependency web, and their levers ranked by effect with the cost of each attached.

In service

Avoided cost of a large commitment taken on the wrong assumption. Test a decision before committing.

In service

Incremental investment capture and concentration de-risking. Price the revenue gap year by year under the planned transition.

Piloted

Reduced policy reversal and stalled-programme rate. Monitoring, response and syndication in one place.

In service

Follow-through on decisions already taken. Support the Cabinet meeting itself, record decisions live with named owners, keep commitments visible between sessions, and update a National Scorecard against consistent measures.

Not adopted

Programme design hit-rate before the spend is committed. Rehearsing how a policy, incentive or message lands, privately, before announcement.

In service

Mandate delivery rate across the term. Turn the manifesto into priorities, pledges, and ministry-owned deliverables.

Piloted

Public services moved online in order of demand, fed from the Ledger. Define the nation’s e-government platform from its own evidence in eleven sourced sections, with independent approval.

Piloted

Priority sectors given an owner, a plan, a Compact and a scorecard. Run sector development as a continuing government programme.

Step 04

Compare the estimated national result.

Four views use the same calculations as the summary: where value is being lost, how the Chambers add to the stated maximum, what could be achieved during the remaining term, and how the same choices compare across the region.

Figure 1

This countryregional median

Where value is lost or delayed

Each bar shows value the state may already be losing, as a share of GDP. The tick is the typical regional value where regional data is available; bars without regional data have no tick. The estimated gain is limited to a portion of these values, not their total.

Figure 2

ContributionCeilingBefore the cap

From each chamber to the capped total

Year-three contributions in the proposed order. The ceiling is 1.2% of GDP at the chosen stance (US$30.0 m); the dashed line is the sum before the ceiling is applied (US$52.9 m). Contributions are scaled so they add exactly to the total.

Figure 3

Total estimated gainConservativeTotal cost

Over five years

No election cycle is on record, so the view covers five years. By the end of that period, the estimated total gain is US$101.9 m against a total GDPVision cost of US$6.2 m, with each year’s cost counted when it begins; the estimated gain recovers the cost in month 3 (month 4 under the conservative outlook). The national platform build is costed separately.

Figure 4

This countryPeer

Against your peers

No same-region peers are on record for this economy.

The same conditions, chambers and stance applied to each regional economy on record, re-scaled by its own GDP and largest-sector share. Differences come from economic structure, not from different assumptions. The rule at the right of each panel is the ceiling (1.20% of GDP).

The link carries this configuration and nothing else; the record is re-read when it is opened.

Adviser · answers from this brief's record and arithmetic

The adviser reads only the public facts and the model output shown on this page. It proposes; the arithmetic decides.

Move a slider and the Counsel will update its reading of your selections.

Estimated economic gain · year three

Return
Cost recovered
Cost / yr

US$11.9 m
US$4.6 m
US$3.8 m
US$1.8 m
US$1.3 m
US$639 k
US$427 k
US$336 k
US$92 k

This model helps frame a decision; it does not predict the future. Every factor is stated, limited, and capped at . Show the calculations to inspect all of it.